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Titolo Lifetime Risks of Cardiovascular Disease
Autore Jarett D. Berry, M.D., Alan Dyer, Ph.D., Xuan Cai, M.S., Daniel B. Garside, B.S., Hongyan Ning, M.D., Avis Thomas, M.S., Philip Greenland, M.D., Linda Van Horn, R.D., Ph.D., Russell P. Tracy, Ph.D., and Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, M.D.
Referenza N Engl J Med 2012; 366: 321-329

Background The lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease have not been reported across the age spectrum in black adults and white adults.

Methods We conducted a meta-analysis at the individual level using data from 18 cohort studies involving a total of 257,384 black men and women and white men and women whose risk factors for cardiovascular disease were measured at the ages of 45, 55, 65, and 75 years. Blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and diabetes status were used to stratify participants according to risk factors into five mutually exclusive categories. The remaining lifetime risks of cardiovascular events were estimated for participants in each category at each age, with death free of cardiovascular disease treated as a competing event.

Results We observed marked differences in the lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease across risk-factor strata. Among participants who were 55 years of age, those with an optimal risk-factor profile (total cholesterol level,participants with two or more major risk factors (4.7% vs. 29.6% among men, 6.4% vs. 20.5% among women).

Those with an optimal risk-factor profile also had lower lifetime risks of fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction (3.6% vs. 37.5% among men,

Conclusions Differences in risk-factor burden translate into marked differences in the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease, and these differences are consistent across race and birth cohorts. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.)

Data 19.09.2012
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